My Predictions For The Future

There are many economists and psychics who will tell you what is going to happen in the future.  I thought I might give it a try too, so here goes.

Rates will go up, someday.  There are arguments about whether or not rates will rise this year or next.  I’m going to boldly say that 10 years from now, rates will have gone up from today!  I feel pretty safe saying this as these are pretty much the lowest bank rates that have existed since such tracking began.

Inflation will rise.  This is also a pretty safe thing to say, with the incredible exception of Japan for the past decade and a half, inflation has generally risen everywhere in almost every decade for the past 200 years.  I predict that 10 years from now many of the things we buy will cost more.  We have to remember that before the global recession, wheat, flour, and bread costs were all rising.  Oil skyrocketed, pushing gasoline to record highs.  We may not return to the record highs in 10 years time, but those prices will most likely be higher in 10 years than they are today.

Stock markets will go up and down, sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot.  Over the past 200 years the general stock market has risen by over 6.8% per year (assuming dividends are reinvested) with some really wild swings in a small number of those years.  So while markets do go down once in a while, in the long run they go up.  This is great news for you, especially if you have quite a while to go before retirement.  This is not necessarily good news if you need to pull your retirement savings out in the next year or so.

I predict that people who save money for retirement over a long period of time (at least 20 years) will have more money to use in retirement than those who do not save money.  I don’t think I need to explain this prediction any further.

People will retire, and people will be born.  Just how many of each and when is a mysterious and deep question. 

• While the first wave of baby boomers turn 65 this year, most baby boomers are still in their 50’s.  With people living longer and more active lives, most will not want to retire at the traditional 60 to 65 years.  They will want a change that allows them a more flexible lifestyle and spend time with family, but many won’t give up working entirely until into their 70’s.  This prolonged work life may come from the need for challenges or sense of contribution, or it may come from monetary need.  Don’t count on them retiring as quickly as everyone kept saying over the past 20 years.
• As for babies being born, modernized nations generally seem to have a declining birth rate.  There are many theories about what this means, from not having enough workers to meet societies’ needs or not a large enough tax base to meet a government’s needs.  I’m not sure about that, but I think technology will end up picking up the slack if there are too few people to do the work.  Self Serve Coffee drive-thrus will become as normal as self serve grocery store check outs are today.  Fewer sales people in most industries will be required as customers simply fill out orders online, along with selecting their choice of options listed on a website. And manufacturing will become even more automated than it is today.

I remember the books I read as a kids talking about  flying cars and stainless steel kitchens that can be washed like a dishwasher when you leave the room.  The lack of flying cars has made me somewhat disappointed and cynical about the speed or direction of change (no flying cars but we finally have blankets with arms on them).  It is very difficult to predict what will happen next year, never mind 10 years out, but I am very confident with my fortune telling.  Feel free to share what you think will happen 10 years form now, besides it being 2020 that is.  Jerry