Rates Are Going To Rise

Rates have been at historic lows for about 2 years in Canada, and about 3 years in the United States.  As the international and national economies improve, interest rates really have nowhere to go but up, and that is going to impact you.

There are 2 groups of consumers who will be most concerned with increasing rates: Investors/Savers and borrowers.  The first wants rates to increase, the latter does not.

Why Rates Go Up Or Down

There has been a lot of talk in the media about the effects of rising interest rates and what they will do the economy.  Some say it is a sign of growth, others say it will harm growth and kill the middle income Canadian family.  Let's start off with some basic facts about interest rates:

Interest is the cost of borrowing or the return for lending money, depending on if you are the borrower or the lender.  The rates at which lenders are willing to lend at are determined by risk, lending competition, and the desired rate of return.  The general rates at which borrowers borrow money at are determined by almost the same things; risk, lending competition, and the forecast rate of return.

Risk -  If risk is considered high, than rates increase.  There is a lot that goes into high level risk assessment some of them working against or with each other: the state of the economy (federal and international), inflation, Central Bank intervention, and the supply and demand for money.

What Happens With Low Rates

The Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney, has been warning Canadians for a while now that we will be in a low interest rate environment for a few years.  He has clarified that by "low" he means lower than average, not necessarily as low as interest rates have been over the past 2 years.

This past week a deputy governor at the Bank of Canada also spoke about low rates and their impact, warning that while usually good for the economy, people's behaviour can create risk during low rate times.

The following is a short list of impacts that low rates have on the economy:
Low Inflation - The Bank of Canada is trying to keep inflation between 1% & 3% annually.  They can influence this by increasing or decreasing the Bank of Canada overnight rate, which is the rate the BoC charges Banks for borrowing money from them to cover some daily incidentals.  Because inflation has been very low for the past 2 years, the BoC rate has been very low.  This means it costs the banks less to borrow money, and the lower cost is passed on to consumers and businesses through lower loan costs.